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ANZ's chief investment office outlines the global outlook for 2019 as the global economy slows and the sharemarket is viewed with increasing caution. Bouncing back Key points Business confidence lifted another 4.6 points to -29.8% in the preliminary July read of the ANZ Business Outlook … importantly recession seems unlikely. Given the global recessionary dynamics that are already in train, upside is limited. Housing market strength, fiscal spending, high terms of trade, the tight labour market and low interest rates are expected to provide support.
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All financials are on a Cash Profit Continuing Basis with growth rates compared to the Half Year ended 31 March 2019 unless otherwise stated. But a lot can happen between now and then â and it will take some time for an interest rate increase to be on the table. Everyday & savings accounts, term deposits & moving to NZ We currently see the OCR on hold for the foreseeable future; the RBNZ has time to see how conditions evolve.
The ANZ Research team has been recognised with more than 40 top-three rankings in major industry surveys across Australia, New Zealand and Asia in the past six years, alongside numerous industry awards.
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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK BETTER BUT SUBDUED fiffffiflflfiflfifl PAGE 5 Source: ANZ Research. Hariramchakraborthy Janakiraman ... ANZ global market outlook 2019: a challenging year. A range of practical and useful tools, guides, workshops and offers
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Headline inflation looks set to rise, but much of this will be transitory and the RBNZ will look through it. Previous engines of growth are not revving as they once were and the economy is facing headwinds.
Also, 2020 is a US presidential election year and a supportive policy backdrop seems locked in for most of the year. 0000090329 00000 n
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We see upside risk from housing and fiscal spending, but large downside risks from unforecastable global shocks, including the potential impacts of the new coronavirus.No oneâs disputing the fact that the New Zealand economy has a little less wind in her sails. 2019 editions With the improved inflation outlook, ANZ Research expects the jobless rate to fall back to below 5.0 per cent in 2020.